COMMENT | Reading the Xi leaves: Uncertain Biden Apec meet

COMMENT | Will China President Xi Jinping attend the Apec summit in San Francisco from Nov 11 to 17 in person?

Current indications are he will likely attend though American officials say nothing is yet definite including him meeting US President Joe Biden. And there is always the possibility of a Xi no-show at the last minute.

If Xi skips the meeting as he did the G20 summit in September and nothing substantial comes out of Apec, Asean will probably pivot even more to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

If this happens, then the US-backed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (Ipef) will lose its influence among member countries, especially those in the Asean grouping.

China plays the anchor role in the RCEP and any increase in its importance will be at the political expense of the US. Many Indo-Pacific countries remember when CPTTP, originally the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), was suddenly abandoned by former US president Donald Trump.

Key US allies such as Japan...