COMMENT | Mahkota by-election: Glitter or gold for Umno?

COMMENT | Fittingly, the constituency of Mahkota in Johor serves as an opportunity for Malaysia’s beleaguered grand old party to showcase its improving, potentially glittering electoral fortunes.

After the Nenggiri victory in Kelantan, Umno is confident that “it’s electorally back”.

It is highly likely that Umno will be able to continue to claim this narrative in the coming by-election for which the campaign officially begins tomorrow.

The electoral trends favour Umno winning the seat convincingly against Bersatu, a party that has beaten up in by-elections in the past year.

Johor remains politically dominated by Umno even as its support over time has significantly eroded. As will be shown below, Umno has a core base of support in this seat, although support has contracted over the last three elections.

As such, Umno should not be overconfident. The results could also...