LETTER | Can Umno-PAS alliance still work?

LETTER | Former Bachok MP Nik Abduh Nik Abdul Aziz has called on Umno to join hands with PAS so that it can get back on track by “returning to Islam”.

Offering itself as the most committed party towards Islam, Nik Abduh has said that Umno needs to remodel itself to cater to young voters, and that its current political model was too old.

Umno had joined hands with PAS before, right after they lost federal power to Pakatan Harapan (Harapan) in 2018.

That was nothing but a desperate move to gather conservative Malays’ support, which was split in 2018 due to the three-cornered fight.

The Muafakat Nasional (MN) coalition formed between the two parties then died off due to the conflicting interests between Umno and PAS, which saw PAS eventually siding with Bersatu, Umno’s biggest enemy in terms of Malay nationalism.

It is not fortuitous. PAS and Umno conflicts with each other in terms of their grassroots power in Terengganu and Kelantan. PAS, as a strong party there, will want to contest in all seats, hoping to win them all.

Therefore, a coalition between Umno and PAS will cause conflict in terms of seat distribution in these two states, which will jeopardise their relationship.

Now, Barisan Nasional (BN), a coalition dominated by Umno, only holds 30 seats in Dewan Rakyat. Hence, their choice to work with Harapan to form the government is definitely a safer option compared to supporting Perikatan Nasional (PN), as Bersatu and PAS combined have enough political strength to “swallow” Umno.

This is the same concept applied when PAS chose Bersatu, as at that time, Umno was much stronger and possessed the capability to “swallow” Bersatu and PAS if they don’t work together.

Attempts to sway Umno

Working with Harapan, though it’s going against Umno’s struggle, would minimise the possible conflict of interest as Harapan pushes different agendas and demands different benefits from Umno.

Nik Abduh’s call can be seen as a move that tries to sway Umno over from the current ruling coalition, especially when Umno’s internal election is happening this year.

He is trying to sway whoever emerges as the new top leader of Umno after the polls to leave Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Harapan, to once again form a so-called “perpaduan ummah” (Muslim solidarity) government via maybe another move in another hotel.

However, this time around, the new government will not see equal distribution of power and patronage among all its members, as Umno just isn’t strong enough anymore to demand anything.

For Umno, working with Harapan is an inevitable choice. Judging from the result of GE15, if BN were to go against PN one-on-one without Harapan in the picture, they would have lost very badly.

In fact, PN might just obtain a two-thirds parliamentary majority without needing to cooperate with other parties.

For Harapan, the same thing would have happened, just maybe PN may hold a smaller majority. Therefore, Harapan and BN must stick together, or risk being “swallowed” by the PN wave.

“Perpaduan ummah” among Umno, Bersatu and PAS would never work in the first place, as they share the same grassroots and supporter base.

Politics is always about the distribution of benefits and power, and race and religion are just cards utilised to incite voters’ emotions.

It is therefore meaningless to keep on tapping into this concept in trying to affect the government’s stability.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.