LETTER | Open letter to Anwar on China

LETTER | Malaysia will need more strategic long-term calculations on its future economic and geopolitical interests, and start to implement steps to pivot away from overreliance on one economic superpower in safeguarding its short-term needs.

This will make the country even more vulnerable in long-term strategic returns, especially seeing the uncertainties in China’s perceived durability in its economic and hard power resilience.

The visit to China by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is an apt platform for Malaysia to send a message that while it cherishes historical rapport and ever-critical economic interdependence, it will also stand firm with conviction on its value-based policy approach and adherence to global norms and a rules-based order.

Malaysia will need to be seen at the global level to have such a future-driven conviction and policy approach in line with the Madani concept and the new leadership’s reform-based orientations.

A review of our approach is critical, especially in safeguarding our sovereignty, survival, and national interests against the growing Chinese bellicosity and coercive tactics in the South China Sea.

This remains critical not only for our national sovereignty and territorial integrity but also concerns the security of our oil and gas assets which make up the bulk of our main economic contributor, with our economic survival and the livelihoods of millions at stake.

The rich marine resources and livelihood of the local fishermen are also at stake, adding to the criticality of the issue that will need the wise and bold commitment by the current leadership to finally have the courage and strategic realisation to confront this decades-old dilemma with the interests of the country in mind, and in line with a Malaysia First concept.

For years, Malaysia has been relying on quiet and backdoor diplomacy in toning down tensions and has been dependent on existing conflict prevention mechanisms in hoping for Beijing’s self-restraint, and has been reluctant to openly cause frictions and conflicts in taking a harsher and open response as increasingly practised by Manila and Hanoi.

Our deterrence capacity is hapless against the might of Beijing’s military build-up and yet we are reluctant to shift our foreign policy approach and have been dangerously slow and lagging behind as compared to neighbouring players in deriving the best strategic manoeuvre moving forward in facing the threats in the South China Sea, in how best to deal with an increasingly erratic and intimidating hard power tactic of Beijing and in facing the potential fall-out of a full-scale conflict in SCS or Taiwan.

Reliance on the goodwill of Beijing and hoping for its self-restraint through consultative and backdoor engagement, and refraining from openly chastising its behaviours in fear of inciting its wrath and economic retaliation, have all not yielded the desired outcome.

For decades, we have been dangerously reliant on Chinese easy credit as a source of investment and capital transfer, with no light at the end of the tunnel.

This is further exacerbated by the renewed commitment by Anwar in the Boao Forum of desiring more BRI extension of investments and projects, with no strategic and comprehensive review done on the impact of these on our national security, environmental concerns, and direct economic repercussions on the people.

Malaysia has been complacent, and falling deeper into the abyss of overdependence on Beijing’s economic and financial lifelines, especially now in our scramble for economic recovery support in imploring for more of Beijing’s economic investment and focus in our country, despite the array of controversial and already ingrained footprint in the country in various mega projects under BRI.

Questionable impact on the local economy, employment opportunities, and other expected spillover effects has also created a serious need to relook at the mega ventures that cost billions of ringgit but seem to suit Beijing’s geopolitical agenda in the region more than the returns to Malaysia’s long term economic impact.

There is no single major review or push to evaluate the threat or impact of these elements of Chinese presence, influence, and grip on our economy and policy options and responses.

There is similarly no review on whether our trapped foreign policy dogma of decades of remaining neutral but overwhelmingly and hypocritically seen as China-centric, actually brings the desired objective of preserving our interests and national security.

From rare earth cultivation to Beijing’s pursuit of our critical sectors including the digital domain of 5G and AI as well as key resource sectors including semiconductors and advanced infrastructure and food security, Malaysia needs to boldly review the underlying cost-benefit calculations and to be strategic and forward-looking in detaching itself from the easy stop-gap measure of relying on China’s financial and capital might.

Our perceived efforts to diversify our economic reliance on Beijing and to increase the number of baskets for our eggs have failed to materialise, as seen in the still clueless strategic orientation of our external trade that has still predominantly relied on Beijing as the easiest way out for our economic dilemma.

Our economic approach to Beijing has been fixated on the expectations that it will maintain its regional economic might and power resilience, where we have no choice but to continue to bandwagon on a conception of a persistently rising China and an inevitable decline of the West.

This is a wrong perception, and a risky one, as we continue to place our overwhelming bet on a Chinese-led regional powerhouse and it has made Malaysia more complacent and ignorant of the need to be strategic and flexible in our foreign policy.

Malaysia is undergoing an economic transformation in focusing more on the digital and green economy, with emphasis on high technology, where Beijing is poised to play a much bigger role in grabbing the early opportunity to establish the foundational footprint.

For now, continuous yearning for Chinese capital, labour, and technology has resulted in low-scale economic spillover impact, and a lingering issue of missing out on principle-laden socio-economic emphasis on human rights, labour standards, technology transfer, inclusivity and equality in opportunities, environmental protection and social responsibilities, community upbringing and value-based economic progressive effects.

The long-term economic structural adjustment will need these value-based and moral high-ground approaches, aligning with global responsibilities.

The expansion of these presences in the country risks further engulfment of our options and falling deeper into the overreliance on China as our sole economic saviour.

This will only make us fall deeper into the economic abyss of being beholden to Beijing’s potential economic blackmailing, particularly the South China Sea and the subsequent implicating factors that will affect Beijing’s intent for Taiwan reunification.

For Beijing, it would seek to further expand its geostrategic pursuit in the region, by relying on the economic grip it still possesses over the region and on Malaysia to seek greater returns on its medium-term security and geopolitical aims.

In facing its dwindling economic prospect, a slowing internal capacity, and growing pressure from the US-led embargo on key technologies, Beijing seeks to channel its resources and focus on countries where it will be easier to further expand its grip, including Malaysia.

Squeezed now by Washington’s move to isolate its critical industry capacity in chips and semiconductors, Beijing is reorienting its moves and expanding its strategic net by including Malaysia and the region on its survival radar.

Malaysia risks being used as a convenient second front to advance Beijing's agenda in escaping from the crunching pressure and embargo by the West, in expanding its leeway and escape by setting up new bases of growth and development in the fields that will be crucial for Beijing to develop untouched by the efforts of the West to punish it based on its past behaviours of not adhering to economic norms and the international law.

By having this escape and the room to grow, it remains relatively unscathed and has no international normative oversight or pressures, enabling Beijing to continue these areas that are needed for its geostrategic returns.

Beijing will need Malaysia to continue with its neutral approach, as Beijing is keen to expel any notion and pursuit of the West to establish a greater security foothold in the region, especially in the South China Sea as the West gained momentum in recent years with the new commitment shown by Manila and increasingly Singapore and Indonesia.

For as long as Beijing can rein in Malaysia through a combination of economic tools and hard power measures, its South China Sea ambition can be further supported, with lesser opening for the US to reinforce its deterring capacity.

We will risk getting the worst out of our current China pandering and the unwillingness to accept greater Western overtures, as we will be exposed to a potentially disastrous economic fallout from a now declining China in internal economic resilience and at the same time, being exposed to a more vulnerable security climate as China grapples with a decline in internal capacity and is under pressure by containment efforts from the West. It will be potentially compelled to exercise greater bellicose and erratic behaviour in the region and in Taiwan.

We remain hapless in our defence and deterrence capacity, which we have yet to fully recognise the reality and urgency on the ground in the South China Sea, unlike our much more strategic, realistic, and agile neighbours especially Singapore and the Philippines.

Malaysia needs to play our strategic card well and wisely, in countering the current situation where Beijing is using its grip on our economic dependence and our current neutrality trap well to its geopolitical advantage.

The South China Sea remains critical for Beijing’s power expansion agenda and in denying Western presence and challenge to its military build-up and claims on the territories, and Beijing is relying on our self-trap of subdued and hapless response, and our inability and unwillingness to align and solicit deeper Western deterrence capacity, as a needed advantage for Beijing to reinforce its pursuit and effectiveness of its power projection measures in the region.

Malaysia has always viewed Beijing’s ambition and its intent there as a threat but remains trapped and tied. This is firstly due to the inability to do so because it will risk Malaysia’s economic survival if Beijing acts to retaliate.

Secondly, Malaysia’s hapless deterrence capacity further diminishes its capacity in standing up against Beijing’s coercive and intimidating tactics of grey zone activities and in maintaining an integrated and omnipresence in the South China Sea, through various tools and strategies including the utilisation of its Coast Guard and civilian fishing vessels.

For us, unless and until we have the needed public awareness and willingness to call for reasonable engagement and action, we will remain trapped under this dogma of fear, submission, and unwillingness to create new future-led solutions and face the truth and reality on the ground.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.