LETTER | Regaining our leverage against China

LETTER | Malaysia needs to stand firm on its interests, rights, and sovereignty on the territorial rights and the rightful ownership of the oil and gas assets in the disputed areas, and it is critical to fully galvanise our cards and strategic moves in dealing with this crucial issue.

We must not squander our chips by exposing our vulnerabilities and be too eager or subservient to Beijing’s dictates and moves in framing the terms of the negotiations, and in them using their economic tool and potential blackmailing to suppress our options and leave us trapped in getting the worst outcome of having no alternative deterrence support, forcing us to accept the least favourable outcome at Beijing’s gains and our own expense.

Malaysia tried to separate the issue of South China Sea (SCS) from the overarching spectrum of comprehensive bilateral ties between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing, with the hope of this not having any bearing on the need to further deepen economic ties.

However, Malaysia does not share other regional players’ strategic wisdom and manoeuvre in opening up for more US security assurances, and this is the area where Beijing is exploiting the most.

Beijing uses this as a two-pronged win-win approach. Firstly, it would potentially agree to a more accommodative stance and a toned-down approach in dealing with the dispute with Malaysia, which might mean a toned-down presence of Coast Guard vessels.

This is with the hope of buying trust and giving goodwill in trying to secure Malaysia’s commitment and confidence in seeing China as a genuine and historically long-lasting socio-cultural and vital economic partner.

With the larger aim of getting the Malaysian buy-in and ensuring Beijing's moves in the SCS will not backfire and push Malaysia further into the West’s orbit, China will likely not squander too much of an opening that will threaten its SCS claims.

If that happens, it will create greater domino implications for Beijing and will give the West greater pretexts and openings to coax Malaysia deeper into prioritising and ultimately aligning with greater long-term needs of securing its own and the region’s survival and sovereignty as opposed to short-term economic gains.

Secondly, it can return to its previous escalatory intimidation and coercive tactic that is geared toward pressuring Malaysia into making mistakes, and breaking its conventional reliance on the backdoor and quiet diplomacy or provide greater openings for the West.

Beijing will then be able to use this as a pretext for a greater economic blackmailing approach. However, this remains a risky move and Beijing will likely stick to its momentum of soft power sway for Malaysia for now.

It remains to be seen the scope and level of the negotiations, but it must not be based on a bilateral basis as Beijing will exercise its burgeoning leverage and cards at its disposal now to use economic tools and other measures to dictate more favourable terms to Beijing.

The trip to China has already been seen as a huge win for Beijing and exposes the deep vulnerability and the ingrained sense of desperado on Malaysia’s part, in scrambling and being desperate for Beijing’s source of capital and investment in helping Malaysia to escape the economic trap and doom.

Beijing’s regional and global ambition with renewed narrative and soft power messaging has been largely adhered to by Malaysia in supporting these key narratives. We must urgently regain our chips and cards and widen our playbook by pulling in greater depth of Western support and affiliation.

Official statements have reflected Malaysia’s continuous intent to look at China as the ever-important economic partner, despite stating our autonomy and neutrality in our approach and being firm in not being cowed by external powers, we are already sleepwalking into being cowed by the mighty pressure and influence of China.

We made a strategic mistake when we affirmed that Malaysia does not see China as a competitor or a threat, as this will effectively give more avenues for Beijing to increase its multi-faceted approach in dealing with us, where the power gap and leverage will only be exponentially increased.

In the statement saying that since there is no outright threat from China, Malaysia is thus happy to be a good neighbour, a friend, and to benefit from China’s success.

This itself is an indication of Malaysia’s tacit alignment with future policies and agenda setting of Beijing and that the urgent economic focus seems to trump other future concerns and we remain dangerously complacent, naïve, and ignorant on the threat and security setting of the real happenings on the ground from historical perspectives and future changes.

Beijing’s broken promise of not militarising the SCS is enough of an indication to send clear signals of Beijing’s all-hands-on-deck approach, where there is no permanent friend or ally in its long-term revival ambitions, having learned bitter lessons of its past.

Regardless of Malaysia’s perceived historical friendship that lasted centuries, for as long as we can serve its geopolitical objectives, accommodative and credit support are aplenty but often disguised with ulterior agendas.

If there is a clear indication of our changed stance or where the cost-benefit calculations no longer favour Beijing, we remain sitting ducks to its greater whims and fancy and increased bellicosity and other measures.

Beijing’s new countermeasures in stoking fear among perceived regional players on the danger of Western interference in dictating our regional norms, in invoking past danger and examples of Western imperialism and atrocities, are part of the renewed push to counter growing Western cohesion and unity in standing up for the rules-based order and international norms.

By pushing countries further under its own orbit of influence and economic order through a carrot-and-stick approach, Beijing has been gaining momentum in rebuilding its image in the Global South and in playing the victim card in giving the clarion call of rising up against Western neo-imperialism and in building regional strength and identity.

Malaysia has fallen into that trap and bandwagon, whether knowingly or unknowingly. We have stated that we disdain neo-imperialism and bloc mentality and have always stood up for human rights and democracy and the ideals of a rules-based order, yet we remain hypocritical and subdued on human rights violations and the non-adherence to international law by Beijing.

For Beijing, it will seek to further expand its geostrategic pursuit in the region by relying on the economic grip it still possesses over the region, and on Malaysia to seek greater returns on its medium-term security and geopolitical aims.

In facing its dwindling economic prospect, a slowing internal capacity and growing pressure from the US-led embargo on key technologies, Beijing seeks to channel its resources and focus on countries where it will be easier to further expand its grip, including Malaysia.

Beijing will need Malaysia to continue with its neutral approach as China is keen to expel any notion and pursuit of the West to establish a greater security foothold in the region, especially in the SCS, as the West gained momentum in recent years with the new commitment shown by Manila and, increasingly, Singapore and Indonesia.

For as long as Beijing is able to rein in Malaysia through a combination of economic and hard-power measures, its SCS ambition can be further supported, with fewer openings for the US to reinforce its responsive and deterrence capacity.

Malaysia is always fearful, although has warm ties with Beijing going back centuries. While the interaction and ties have largely been accommodating and supportive, the new ventures and ambitions of Beijing especially under President Xi Jinping have warranted enough fear and wariness despite the socio-cultural and economic affiliation.

With Beijing’s growing military might and lethality and realising its own handicapped deterrent responses, Malaysia thus is actually welcoming Western countermeasures in the region through its enhanced presence in the Philippines and with other measures including Quad, AUKUS, and deeper bilateral engagements with regional players.

However, Malaysia can only quietly welcome these measures, fearing a backlash from Beijing and a deviation from the country’s long-held neutrality.

It has been wanting the US and the West to do more in economic and investment terms in the region and the country and has been happy in receiving more than US$230 million (RM1 billion) in security grants and assistance and other defence support from the US since 2017.

However, KL remains reluctant to adhere to the West’s call for a more urgent and active response in standing up to Beijing’s claims and conduct in the South China Sea, even chastising the US when it tried to provide support in the West Capella incident of maritime standoff with Beijing and the numerous episodes of Chinese incursions.

Just by cosying up to China, and all the lure of the enticement, made us sweep all the important fundamental global and civilisational norms under the carpet.

We remain a maritime and trading nation where we rely on external trade and the protection of the sea and trade routes, just like China needed these too in securing national economic interests.

This can only be secured with unwavering, equal, and steadfast abidance and respect for international law and a rules-based order, not selective adherence to one’s own whims and fancy like what Beijing has done in the SCS, and selective praise and ignorance on sensitive issues in trying to win favour with China and in securing economic importance, like what Malaysia has done.

Finland has just joined NATO, after 70 years of neutrality, as it is realistic, truthful, and wise enough to act on common sense measures to safeguard its own interests and survival amidst changing and stark realities on the ground with Russia’s new intent.

It is a pity that Malaysia is still trapped in its own ignorance and self-delusion of its own stubborn and utopian perspective of changing security calculations, and self-defeating actions of futile and clueless submission of faith to the same bet of decades-old strategy.

It takes courage, unyielding principles, and resolute conviction and faith in stating the truth, pointing out the reality and in righting the wrongs and playing the expected norms and obligations as a responsible global player.

Malaysia will be respected for these credentials and principles, not through continuous hedging, balancing or reliance on the disguised approach of neutrality.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.