LETTER | Will Muda split Harapan votes in upcoming state polls?

LETTER | “If two big elephants are fighting with each other, everyone else in between will get squashed.”

Muda announced to contest under its own ticket in all six upcoming state elections.

Despite being the new kid on the bloc, this youth-centric political party led by lawmaker Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman is definitely trying to make a stand by proving its presence in the political landscape.

There is less than a 10 percent chance for Muda to win seats in the state polls and yet, its decision to contest might seem a little overambitious and even leave it in the cold.

Political scientist James Chin from the University of Tasmania said if Muda is contesting, it will draw some of the young votes away in the urban areas like Penang with some small numbers but would not leave an impact in the polls.

“If Muda goes on its own, my prediction is more than 90 percent of the candidates will lose their deposits because everybody understands that there is a big fight going on between Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional.

“There is not much space for Muda here, although they can make nuances and split away some votes, there is no way it can win,” he said when contacted with reference to the party’s present political standing.

Muda had applied to join Harapan before the general election in November 2022 and the coalition partners had a disagreement on whether it should be accepted as some argued the party would be a liability and that its inclusion would complicate seat allocations.

Chin said leaders in Harapan and PN think that Muda does not add value or benefit their political coalitions, but the point to be concerned about is this newly emerged party's ability to draw young potential voters’ attention.

“A lot of people in Harapan and Umno think Muda does not add value and using that against him (Syed), the point is not that… the idea is PN is marshalling all the anti-(Prime Minister) Anwar (Ibrahim) forces into their team… as long as you are anti-Anwar, you can go join them.

“It seems quite silly to me that Harapan is not taking this approach of anybody against PN can join them… if Harapan pushes Muda out, they are just creating needless trouble,” he added.

Power of TikTok

Studies have shown that TikTok proved its political salience in GE15 especially stemming from the Undi18 constitutional amendment which increased its potency. Voting age was lowered to 18 and new automatic voter registrations made many people registered eligible to vote.

The result showed an additional six million voters were added to the register compared to the previous general election, which was an increase of more than 30 percent.

These young or passive swing voters with no previous voting record or known party loyalties, faced with such uncertainties, were wooed by political parties and politicians to court their support. The TikTok video campaigning, in general, featured prominently during the campaign period last year November.

It was reported that Muda asserted the value of TikTok as a major GE15 battleground, given that it had “fast-paced content, emotion-provoking and was the most friendly cross-app tool.” In other words, TikTok videos were easy to reach different platforms.

Harapan probably could have joined forces with Muda to draw the young voters and make the coalition stronger by leveraging social media influencers collaboratively.

However, by doing so it will definitely upset the existing youth wing leaders under Harapan, who will compete for seats with Muda candidates causing unwanted chaos.

At the same time, Muda in all possibilities of rebelling and ‘acting hasty’ may not attain any dominant victories (based on predictions), the party might face a high risk of not being relevant anymore.

Muda contested for six constituencies in GE15, and won only one (Muar) out of 222 parliamentary seats.

So, good luck, Muda.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.