LETTER | State polls will determine support pattern of Malay voters

LETTER | Last week, all six states officially dissolved their legislative assemblies. Kelantan and Selangor dissolved their state assemblies on June 22 and June 23 respectively, followed by Kedah, Penang, and Terengganu on June 27. Negeri Sembilan dissolved its state assembly on July 1.

These upcoming state elections may occur only nine months after the 15th general election, resulting in a hung Parliament. Consequently, Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Harapan coalition, which garnered the most votes, formed a unity government with its former rival, Umno, through its coalition BN.

The six state elections will show how the Malays vote will affect Anwar and his collaborators months after establishing the Madani initiative.

The state elections might end with a status quo - with Harapan defending Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan. At the same time, Perikatan Nasional, through PAS, might hold on to Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.

The Harapan coalition previously governed Penang through the cooperation of PKR and DAP, which hold a commanding two-thirds majority in the state legislative assembly with 37 seats out of 40.

Given the collaboration between BN and Harapan in the unity government, the two seats won by BN will support Harapan in Penang.

The members of the unity government will be able to secure 40 state assembly seats in Penang during the upcoming state elections. In the 14th general election, PAS only won one seat.

Considering this development, it is unlikely for Penang's government to change or fall into the hands of PN since Harapan already has BN's support. Even if BN loses, Harapan is expected to have little difficulty defending the state due to the seats predominantly held by DAP.

It is undeniable that PN's victory in three parliamentary seats in the GE15 presents a new challenge for Harapan-BN to win several state assembly seats with a majority of Malay voters.

For PKR and Penang, the state election holds significance in determining the pattern of Malay support in the region, which is often associated with the stronghold of PKR and Anwar.

For Selangor, the Harapan-BN coalition holds a substantial majority with control over 51 out of 56 state assembly seats. When BN joined forces with Harapan to form a unity government at the federal level, the majority power in Selangor increased to 55 seats after including the four state seats belonging to BN.

This relatively stable position in Selangor enables Harapan to maintain its hold on power. However, the results of the GE15 at the parliamentary level saw PN securing six seats in Selangor, which could impact the outcome of the upcoming state election. Therefore, Selangor Harapan needs to exert effort in defending the state from falling into the hands of the opposition, especially in rural areas.

Meanwhile, in Negeri Sembilan, the collaboration between BN and Harapan is expected to benefit BN since, in GE14, Harapan won 20 state assembly seats compared to BN's 16. This Harapan-BN alliance in the state is seen as strengthening their positions and posing challenges for their opponents.

The issue of Harapan-BN is about the agreement that will be reached for the upcoming state elections is the ability of both Harapan and BN to avoid clashes with each other, as emphasised by the top leaders of the involved parties. Currently, Harapan-BN agrees on the division of contested seats, but the acceptance of grassroots voters remains uncertain.

PN's ‘Green Wave’

It is a different situation in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, where challenges differ significantly for the unity government and Anwar. With PAS and Bersatu joining forces, Harapan-BN will have a tough time defeating PN, but there is still hope for them.

It is doubtful that the number of PN seats will decrease or remain the same. If the PN's manifesto and campaign succeed, the green wave may pick up steam again, and they will win more seats.

PAS previously emerged as the dominant force in Kelantan, winning 37 out of 45 seats. It indicated that PAS obtained a two-thirds majority without relying on other allies. Based on past performance, Kelantan will likely remain under PAS's control in the upcoming state election. The enduring support for PAS in Kelantan has made it their stronghold since the 1960s.

Meanwhile, PAS secured 22 seats in Terengganu, while BN/Umno emerged as PAS's main rival with ten seats in GE14. With a significant victory in the GE15 results, PN's position in Terengganu saw the coalition sweep eight parliamentary seats, indicating a similar trend for the state election.

The remarkable performance of Terengganu Menteri Besar Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar over the past five years has been an enormous benefit for PN, and his reputation and stature among Terengganu residents are currently growing.

For Kedah, PN currently holds 23 seats through PAS (15 seats), Bersatu (six seats), and two for Pejuang. On the opposition front, they control 10 state assembly seats, with PKR having five, two seats each for DAP and BN, and three belonging to Amanah.

PN's position in Kedah is relatively stable, and their substantial victory in the GE15 results saw PN securing 14 out of 15 contested parliamentary seats, giving PN an advantage in the rice granary state.

Since GE14, the process and narrative of the prime minister's politics have undergone significant changes. In the past, all parties conspired and shared seats to be contested.

However, after 2018, the new approach is to contest first, and the formation of the government is determined based on the emerging trend or the results of the general election or state election. If no party achieves dominance after the general election or state election, the dominant political party will lead the formation of the government.

In conclusion, the upcoming state elections will determine the support patterns of Malay voters in Peninsular Malaysia, indicating preferences for PAS, Umno, Bersatu and PKR.

It will reveal the party that becomes the favoured choice among Malays, and it will determine whether PAS retains its appeal among the Malays in Kelantan and Terengganu and if the 'Green Wave' gains a foothold in Kedah, similar to the results of the recent GE15.

The authors are academicians from University Putra Malaysia.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.