LETTER | A new status quo

LETTER | The much-anticipated state elections have finally concluded. The unity pact between Pakatan Harapan and BN retained Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, and Penang, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) continue their rule in Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan.

It seems like the status quo was maintained, except it’s not.

The Kedah state government has been changing since the opposition tsunami in 2008. The political structure there was never stable in the past 15 years, with subsequent changes of four different state governments in the span of three terms.

PN ruled Kedah with a slim majority after Sheraton Move. However, this time, PN achieved a landslide victory in Kedah by winning 33 out of the 36 seats contested.

This is not only a retention of the status quo, but a strengthening of PN’s growing influence in the northern peninsula.

PN has also won 32 out of 32 contested seats in Terengganu, its traditional stronghold. This has allowed them to form a state government without opposition.

PN making inroads in S’gor, N Sembilan

We must remember that in GE14, despite the nationwide outrage against BN, it still managed to win 10 seats in Terengganu. This shows that the Malay votes on the east coast have completely swung to PN.

Navigating towards the south, for the first time since 2013, Harapan lost its two-thirds majority in Selangor.

The sacking of former Selangor Umno warlord Noh Omar has caused a swing in Malay support in constituencies like Sungai Burong, Sabak, Sungai Panjang and more.

More shockingly, PN managed to penetrate Harapan’s fortress in the centre and southern Selangor such as Hulu Kelang, Gombak Setia and Morib. This indicates that PN is no longer a rural-only coalition, but it is capable of playing the game in urban areas too.

Meanwhile, the change in Negeri Sembilan is seemingly not captured well by the media.

Superficially, the Harapan-BN pact won a two-thirds majority to form a strong state government there. However, if the data on vote share is carefully analysed, all the constituencies that are not contested by DAP, especially those contested by Umno, are won with a slim majority.

This could be the first time in Malaysian history that PAS representatives win in the southern peninsula, indicating their emerging influence in the area.

The results of the state elections should serve as a wake-up call for the unity government at the federal level. Umno must conduct internal reforms to not only brush off its corruption stain, but also to revamp the whole party into a completely different political path, that is, to change from a race-based party to a policy-based multiracial party like PKR and DAP.

Based on the results of the state elections, it is unlikely for Umno to regain the confidence of Malays via a racial line, given its current partnership with Harapan. For them, this could be a perfect timing to try out a new direction, given they now have nothing else to lose.

In the meantime, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Harapan should ramp up reform efforts at the federal level to address the issues of inflation and poverty.

The unity government has conducted various great reform measures right after they got into power such as the termination of all previous government-lined companies (GLC) political contracts, outright directive to stop business monopolies, and the return of MA63 power to Sarawak and Sabah.

However, as Anwar moves on to consolidate his power, we have seen politicians coming back as GLC directors and his refusal to review the racial quotas to establish a fairer system.

Pandering to the right to gain the conservatives’ support would not work for the unity government as they could never be as conservative as PN.

Umno has already lost almost all its conservative base, while Harapan is born to counter the conservative force. By recklessly swinging right, Harapan would lose all its liberal base, while not gaining anything from the conservatives.

But conservatives want their lives to be better, too. Therefore, the unity government would still stand a chance in coming elections if they really start steering the country in the right direction.

Otherwise, it’s not surprising that PN returns as the government after GE16, while the unity government suffers a collective demise.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.