Kimanis by-election outcome: Status quo won't change, says analyst

KIMANIS POLLS | The victory of any party in the Kimanis parliamentary by-election on Jan 18 will not change the status quo in Parliament but it will provide a morale boost to the winning political party.

According to Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) political analyst Ramli Dollah, the Kimanis by-election will be significant from the psychological aspect, as the boost to the winning party will be useful in the next potential by-election or the 15th general election.

The by-election will also serve as a yardstick for public support for Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) and its partner, the Pakatan Harapan alliance, with Warisan leading the state government in Sabah, and Harapan leading the federal government, after securing the general election in May 2018.

"In any election, a win will usually have a domino effect on other elections, particularly among voters on the fence," the senior lecturer at the university's Humanities, Arts and Heritage Faculty told Bernama recently, adding that in particular, it could give such voters confidence in the winning party as it gears up for the 15th general election.

The Jan 18 by-election will see a one-on-one contest between Warisan's Karim Bujang, 67 (on right in photo, above) and Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate Mohamad Alamin, 48. Both men are the Kimanis division chiefs for Warisan and Umno respectively.

The Election Commission has fixed Jan 14 for early voting. The Kimanis area has two state constituencies, comprising Bongawan and Membakut.

Ramli believes that of the two candidates, Karim possesses the advantage in securing a win, particularly because he is a local and a five-term assemblyperson for Bongawan from 1990 to 2013.

Karim also draws strength from the support of his party and its partnership with the Harapan alliance, said Ramli, adding that being a candidate from a governing party at either state or national level, is a strength in itself.

Nevertheless, Ramli noted that Karim faces immense challenges in the form of current issues concerning the government, particularly promises made at state and national level.

The Warisan candidate will also be tested in terms of his ability to deal with all kinds of attacks from the opposition, the analyst added.

To Prof Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), the political scenario in Sabah is unique and different compared to that in Peninsular Malaysia, and as such, he believes BN should not rely on its win in the Tanjung Piai by-election in November last year as an indication that voters in Kimanis would share similar sentiments.

"The community in Kimanis is different. The issues are also different, such as the Malaysia Agreement 1963 and the issue of oil royalties, alongside cost of living and statehood issues," he said.

On the significance of the Kimanis by-election to Warisan and its partner Harapan, Sivamurugan said it was tremendously important, mainly in terms of providing motivation and confidence in 2020.

'A test for leadership of the Sabah CM'

The by-election will also serve as a test for the leadership of Warisan president and Sabah Chief Minister Mohd Shafie Apdal (above, on right) who has been at the helm for almost two years.

"Warisan has a few party representatives at federal level, and this definitely provides an advantage in terms of party machinery and logistics. Shafie will also surely use the full complement of the party machinery because the candidate is from Warisan," Sivamurugan said.

The Kimanis by-election follows the Federal Court ruling on Dec 2 last year to uphold the decision of the Kota Kinabalu Election Court, which cancelled the win by BN candidate and former foreign minister Anifah Aman for the same seat during the 14th general election on May 9, 2018.

In its decision on Aug 16 last year, the Election Court ruled that Anifah's win was invalid following the discovery of additional ballot papers that could have compromised the election outcome.

There are a total of 29,664 registered voters in the Kimanis parliamentary constituency.

- Bernama