Investors much less confident about market outlook, Trump re-election chance: survey

The markets are much less confident about Europe and the United States getting back to business ahead of the summer, a Deutsche Bank investor survey showed on Monday, even as some countries begin gradually re-opening their economies.

Countries around the world have forced people to stay at home to contain the global coronavirus pandemic, leading to businesses shutting down and bringing economic activity grinding to a halt.

While the equity market has recovered since a crash in March, 60 percent of the investors Deutsche Bank surveyed said they don’t think the world’s richer countries will be “back to normal” until September at the earliest.

In early March, the bank’s monthly market survey of hundreds of investors had showed life was seen returning to normal over the summer, with only 12 percent of the respondents thinking otherwise.

The latest survey, conducted April 15-17, also suggested US President Donald Trump’s chances of being re-elected in November have fallen amid criticism of his response to the pandemic and with former vice president Joe Biden set to be his Democratic opponent.

The likelihood of a Trump win tumbled with 58 percent of respondents forecasting this outcome, down from 95 percent in February.

“A more moderate Democratic opponent plus the President’s response to the virus crisis has seen our respondents’ lowest likelihood of a Mr Trump reelection,” Deutsche Bank strategists wrote.

In equities, after the recent rally in risk markets, people expected shares to fall in the short term, but they still saw this as a buying opportunity over the next 12 months.

A third said they expected the S&P 500 and the STOXX 600 indexes to be higher in three months, but around 60%thought shares in the United States and Europe would jump in a year.